Over the next five years, there is an 80% probability that global temperatures will rise by 1.5°C, exacerbating the risks associated with climate change.

Summary: The World Meteorological Organization warns that there is an 80% probability that at least one year within the next five years will see global annual average temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It is expected that between 2024 and 2028, annual average temperatures will be 1.1 to 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial levels of 1850-1900. This trend is approaching the 2-degree Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement and is getting closer to the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold. A temperature rise exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius could trigger more severe climate change and extreme weather events.

Explanation:

• Pre-industrial levels: Refers to the average global temperatures from 1850-1900, before the Industrial Revolution, serving as a benchmark for modern climate change.
• Paris Agreement: An international treaty aimed at limiting global temperature rise, with a goal to keep the increase in global average temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
• 1.5-degree Celsius threshold: The scientific community believes that a global temperature rise beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius will lead to irreversible environmental damage and an increase in extreme weather events.