Rise of Nonstate Armed Groups and the Erosion of Western-led Global Order

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warns of a potential governance vacuum in Gaza following an Israeli withdrawal, which could lead to a resurgence of Hamas. Worldwide, nonstate armed groups are increasing in power, offering essential services and governance in regions where national governments fail. These groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Taliban, operate both militarily and civilly, often grounded in religious beliefs.

In 2023, it is estimated that 195 million people lived under the rule of such groups, which frequently mimic state functions by collecting taxes, administering justice, and providing healthcare. This trend challenges the post-WWII international order, where sovereign states were the standard. As U.S. influence diminishes, multilateral polarization grows, with adversaries such as Iran and Russia leveraging these groups to challenge Western dominance.

The complexity of applying international law to nonstate actors and the perceived Western double standards in conflicts like Gaza undermine global trust in Western-led law and order. Developed nations must reevaluate their strategies to maintain influence in a shifting global order.