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Far-Right National Rally Poised to Dominate French Politics

The far-right National Rally (RN) is on track to become France's largest party in the National Assembly. This surge marks a significant shift in French politics, with RN now the dominant force. The upcoming second round of voting on July 7th will determine if RN secures an outright majority, giving them a free hand in government, or if they face constraints due to a split Assembly.

Current projections suggest RN could win between 260 and 310 seats, with 289 needed for a majority. To counter this, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists and the left-wing New Popular Front are urging tactical voting. However, the effectiveness of such strategies is uncertain, as public adherence to party orders diminishes.

The high voter turnout has led to many "triangular votes"—constituencies with three candidates from the center, far-right, and left. This complicates efforts to consolidate anti-RN votes. The nation seems resigned to a far-right victory, a shift that has left many in urban areas, particularly Paris, disheartened.

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