World Bank Predicts Slowing Growth for China in 2025 Despite Stimulus

China's growth is expected to slow in 2025, despite recent stimulus measures. The World Bank forecasts a decline to 4.3% from 4.8% in 2024. While monetary stimulus boosted investor confidence initially, it failed to sustain it.

Aaditya Mattoo, the World Bank's chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, points out that the stimulus lacks a clear fiscal component, complicating growth projections. Consumer concerns—including declining salaries, property incomes, and social fears—are weighing heavily.

James Sullivan, head of Asia-Pacific equity research at JPMorgan, questions whether the stimulus will boost consumer demand, not just supply and investment. Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' chief China economist, sees 2025 growth as dependent on additional stimulus and the outcome of the U.S. election.

China's National Development and Reform Commission pledges more economic support but avoids major new plans. The World Bank advocates for deeper structural reforms, rather than just stimulus, to sustain long-term growth.

Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is expected to rise to 4.9% next year, but as China's growth slows, the region must find new drivers of growth. For decades, China's growth has benefited its neighbors; now, that momentum is fading.