Durian's Rise Impacts Global Coffee Prices Amid Climate Challenges

A freak frost in Brazil in 2021 decimated Arabica coffee crops, driving prices up. Buyers turned to Vietnam for Robusta beans, but droughts there reduced yields. Vietnamese farmers, chasing higher profits, replaced coffee with durian, the world’s smelliest fruit. This shift, combined with depleted coffee stocks, pushed Robusta prices to near-record highs.

The International Coffee Organisation reports a 50% drop in Robusta exports from Vietnam. Other producers like Colombia and Ethiopia have ramped up supply, but not enough to meet demand. Judy Ganes, an analyst, calls it a "perfect storm."

Wholesaler Paul Armstrong sees prices rising, potentially surpassing £5 in the UK. He notes that while beans contribute less than 10% to retail coffee prices, inflationary costs are driving up overall prices. Felipe Barretto Croce, CEO of FAFCoffees in Brazil, agrees, highlighting that high-quality coffee may now seem more affordable compared to lower-quality blends.

The upcoming spring crop in Brazil is crucial. Early rains could stabilize the market, but late rains could worsen shortages. Long-term, climate change threatens coffee production, with studies predicting a 50% decline in suitable growing areas by 2050.

A "green premium"—a small tax on coffee to fund sustainable farming—could help mitigate these challenges. But for now, the smell of durian is adding to the bitter taste of rising coffee prices.